Betting Articles

Nick's Punting Diary w/c 08-07-13

One of the things about betting is that the outcome of a bet will always elicit an emotional response - either joy if the bet wins or disappointment if the bet loses.  If you are one of those punters whose emotional response is at either extreme then the chances are you are losing more  than you make.  If your emotional range is narrow then you probably have the mentality needed to make some profits in this game.

On that note, I am often asked what gives me more joy - the financial reward of a winning bet or the satisfaction of having picked the right outcome.  For me it is the latter and this weekend’s punting is a case in point.  I had a great weekend, but I did not make a lot of money.  I had my best “bet” of the year so far but did not win any money on it.  Yet as I type this this I can honestly say I am very satisfied!

I’m in a routine at the moment which is always a good thing when it comes to betting.  The week is spent trying to eke out some profits on the football goals markets, leaving the weekend for my main passion, horse racing.  Into the mix we can add those people who head off to Chester races and want some “tips” from yours truly.

The Newmarket July festival is one of my favourite meetings and this weekend we also have cracking cards at Ascot and York and a two-day meeting from my favourite racecourse, Chester.

The first card I look at is Ascot.  In the Group 2 mile race, the name Aljamaaheer leaps off the page.  Lightly raced, and with a progressive profile, he has contested two Group 1 races this season and ran very well to finish 2nd (to Declaration of War) and 3rd (behind Farrh and Sovereign Debt).  The 5/2 looks a great price and I do not hesitate to get on this as my NAP of the weekend.

Over at Newmarket, I really like Excellent Guest in the Bunbury.  This is one of those big handicaps where I like to pick a solid each-way horse who will give me a good run for my money and who also has a decent shout at landing the top prize.  18/1 will do for me and I back him to small stakes.

In the July Cup I have to go with Society Rock.  This is a horse I really like (how many times have you heard me say that!).  I have the feeling that Lethal Force pinched the race from the front in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot.  Fallon is confident of reversing the form and so am I.  A straight win bet at 11/2.

It would be rude not to have a bet in the John Smith’s Yorkshire Cup and Godolphin’s Expert Fighter is my selection, each-way 5 places @18/1.

Saturday morning is a busy one and I have promised a friend I will send him some tips for Chester to pass on to his wife who is heading to the Roodee with the girls.  I suggest Richard Fahey’s Our Gabrial (drawn 1) in the first, double-seeking Red Explorer (drawn 2) in the next and the ultra-consistent Rivas Rhapsody (drawn 2) in the third race.

On to the Class 2 handicap and I’m drawn (no pun intended) to Al’s Memory at the foot of the weights.  His form figures are totally uninspiring but he is drawn in stall 1 and his last run was a huge improvement on recent efforts.  Not only is he racing off his last winning mark but useful claimer DJ Bates takes off 5lbs.  From his draw I can see him leading at the turn into the home straight and then it’s just a case of holding the chasing pack at bay.  As I’ve said before, the final straight at Chester is very short and any horse leading going into it usually takes some catching.

The tips are completed with likely winner Good Evans in race 5, Livia’s Dream in race 6 and previous course winner Queen Aggie in the lucky last.  Queen Aggie is a horse I like (I like a lot of horses!!!!) and at 4/1 I decide to play this race myself.

The day’s racing gets off to a flier as Aljamaaheer wins nicely.  We were helped by the withdrawal of biggest danger Afsare, who also happened to be a Pricewise selection!  Great start and with Aljamaheer carrying 50% of my total weekend stakes I am fairly relaxed for the remainder of the day’s entertainment.

On to the John Smith’s Cup and Expert Fighter gives me a run for my money, well for the first 10 furlongs anyway.  Always up with the pace he simply failed to see out the trip and ended up going backwards faster than an Italian tank in World War 2.

Next up is the Bunbury Cup and Excellent Guest was disappointing.  I can’t really add much more than that.  In the July Cup I am really hopeful and expect Society Rock to use his exquisite turn of foot and come with a late run to land the spoils.  He sort of lived up to my game-plan but there was never any chance of catching Lethal Force.  Lethal Force confirmed the Royal Ascot form and must go down as the Champion sprinter of 2013.  He was hugely impressive and no doubt I will back him next time as he is now a horse “I really like”!

Meanwhile at Chester I seem to suffering from a severe case of “seconditis”.  Our Gabrial 2nd, Red Explorer 2nd and Rivas Rhapsody also adds to his own personal collection of 2nd places.  Having put a couple each way on West Leak Diman for another friend (am I North Wales’ bet butler?!) I can get a live stream of the next race through the William Hill website.  My tip, Al’s Memory, breaks nicely from his plum draw and bags the inside rail.  Travelling nicely he maintains that lead into the tight final bend and kicks on.  He holds on gamely to make all and lands the spoils at a tasty SP of 9/1.  I am absolutely ecstatic as, not only have I picked the winner, but he runs his race as though I had written the script.  I had no money on him myself but that’s not the point and I chalk this up as my best selection of the year.

Good Evans and Livia’s Dream both finish third in their respective races.  Predictably, Queen Aggie finishes second and gives me my 5th silver medal of the day from my variety of personal bets and tips.

Although I have had much better returns and picked more winners in a single day over the years, I can’t help feeling really content with the day’s proceedings.  This is a really tough game we play and making profits is not easy.  If ever this becomes a chore I will knock it on the head and take up golf or some other suitable middle-aged pursuit.  Tom Segal from Pricewise states in the Racing Post book about the famous column that the single most important thing in betting is to have fun.  If you do not enjoy it then don’t do it and this weekend I’ve certainly had fun.
Drawing Dead...
Glorious Goodwood Days 1 and 2


There are no comments yet. Be the first one to leave a comment!